What can become of a dollar from a fierce person?
Hello, dear guests of the blog, today you will learn the latest forecast for the dollar exchange rate for the year 2017. The expected stabilization, unfortunately, has not yet arrived and the currency market, as before, is in a restless state. Until the spring of 2017, the current tax cuts on the dollar/ruble pair will not be transferred. In the spring, the dollar gradually depreciated, but in the early months there was a surprise for everyone.
Representatives of the Central Bank have confirmed that the risk of black gold will be fixed at 55 dollars per barrel. The price cannot rise any higher until the activation of naphtha production in America, which, in its turn, minimizes the effect of the shortening of oil production by OPEC countries.
A dollar is worth 60 rubles at a time, this value was also due to the privatization of Rosneft. As a result, the region’s budget increased by 710 billion rubles, which helped to remove a significant amount of money from the Reserve Fund.
Dmitro Medvedev said that the government has no intention of corrupting the government in order to increase the budget. These moves could lead to increased inflation and market destabilization. Analysts did not exclude the possibility of this method being stagnant, as there were no other methods. The expansion of external officials allows the central bank to renew the currency. The regulator wants to update reserves, which will lead to greater stability in the mid-term outlook. It is also possible for the Central Bank to lower the rate in order to make credit resources cheaper. In this situation, the increase in the Fed rate is not due to the ruble exchange rate. And the axis of change in the naphtha market may be pushed towards the Russian ruble.
Dollar exchange rate forecast for 2017
Many experts have again begun to make optimistic forecasts, which, having already seen everything, will not end. We are optimistic that 2017 will show stability. Alas, it’s a pity, it’s too early to give in.
More experts say that the ruble has become cheaper than the dollar, and inflation in Russia will be higher, lower in America and at about 13%. 2016 ended with a downward trend, which in five years will reach the 90 mark. This month there will be further depreciation of the ruble against the dollar.
Why save your savings?
The exchange rate of the ruble is difficult to talk about for those who cannot save their wealth in rubles. If you have a lot of money, then the best way to save money is to choose dollars or euros. Rubles need to be withdrawn only from the current expenditure, in order for others to be saved. Since there is an urgent need to increase, then you can earn it as soon as possible, so that in the future the price may increase.
Lutiy 2019 is the most important month for the short-term plan based on the fluctuation of dollar and ruble exchange rates. The reason is that it is necessary to have a lot of hope that you were born before the New Year, so that you can get onto the course. There’s a lot planned for this one that’s definitely right. Report - this is the article.
Qiu article written on September 15, 2019. Ale is gradually updating. Updated in the comments! At the time of writing, the exchange rate of the dollar on the exchange has experienced a significant correction after the recent new growth associated with the collapse of the price of naphtha. Actions of an uneconomic nature led to the fact that the price of oil went up, which showed a positive effect on the ruble exchange rate. But that’s not all: the dollar has begun to lose positions in other currencies.
Just be careful - all guesses are subjective in nature, every participant in the market acts at his own risk.
The dollar exchange rate is always changing, but not following the rules
These patterns are obvious to everyone, but they can be seen through various untransmitted circumstances. We’ll talk about the rest below, but for now it’s repeated from month to month: until the middle of the day and close to the end of any month, the ruble tends to change (the dollar is obviously cheaper) through The willingness of exporters to sell part of their proceeds to pay taxes. It's a good time to do some shopping.
The reverse picture is that at the beginning of the month (it’s a fierce month, I guess, without being a culprit), however, there is a peak in payments in the currency, and then, in the first half of the month, we can increase local maxima.
“Black Swans” by Fierce
The way you check can have a negative impact on the ruble exchange rate.
package of sanctions. There is a high chance that the US Congress will praise the new package of sanctions. Who can say that this package is already included in today’s exchange rate, but it is not so. Over the course of 2018 (especially in leaf fall), several times dollars grew on the sensitive side that sanctions may impose on the axis-axis, and then again decreased on information, so that the view of nutrition was postponed. Now the Congress faces serious problems (they still have the fact that the administrative bodies have been put “on pause” due to the lack of a clear understanding of the possibilities of increasing the US government), but it is too early to figure it out.
Prices for naphtha. Americans appreciate that the stink has come from naphtha prices. After the announcement by OPEC+ about the exchange rate, as a result the price returned to the same value (in the area of 55-65 dollars for Brent), and the price should not be affected by the exchange rate of the dollar. As soon as there are new things, the stinks will play. But no one is checking for them yet.
Significance to China and US companies. Although the financial river does not begin in China, many companies and government structures share information about their formation with the market. It is not excluded that the improvement of China's economy and the rotten data of US companies will be viewed negatively.
Why is the dollar exchange rate so hot? Dumka Bugaiv
Without overstating the obvious guesses, we simply overreact the factors that, as usual, appear to be on the dollar based on the movement of the exchange rate.
- Negative foreign policy. Possibility of introducing new sanctions;
- The beginning of the purchase of US currency from today within the framework of the fiscal rule;
- Serious payments from Russian companies for foreign exchanges begin to fall on this very day. Currency for this stink, shvidshe for everything, is bought in the market;
- As of today, the dollar has weakened significantly against other currencies. A reversal of this trend or a simple correction will simply put the situation in a different direction;
- Possible trading in the markets of countries that are developing;
- Problems with China and US companies;
- The bubble of the stock market in the USA and in the rest of the world may begin (and soon continue) to swell. This will make investors afraid of the risky markets.
Why is the course likely to fall? Or, take care, take care. Thought of the Vedmeds
- Low seasonal money will be spent on hard currency;
- the presence of actual evidence of a negative influx of currency purchases by the Ministry of Finance into the market;
- Stable price for naphtha;
- As soon as possible, OPEC+ participants will publish materials to actually shorten the production of naphtha. If it turns out to be significant, the carbovanets will become a little more expensive;
- Various verbal interventions about the global undervaluation of the ruble (although the remaining point is pure irony).
- Submission period for the 1st quarter of 2019. Only a lot of tax agents need to pay a lot 1.2 trillion rubles in taxes. Of these, the tax for the species of copal copalina is 670 billion. In this case, the payment will be borne by exporters, which will force them to sell currency and buy rubles to pay taxes.
The example of verbal interventions
Oleksiy Zabotkin, head of the Department of penny-credit policy of the Central Bank
“The Bank of Russia’s purchase of currency on the market did not lead to a new weakening of the ruble,” said Oleksiy Zabotkin.
Is the ruble truly an undervalued currency?
We made the remaining point to show that verbal interventions do not work.
Butt - BigMac index
There are literally a couple of rows about him. It seems that the ruble is an undervalued currency because in Russia a Big Mac costs 110 rubles (in fact it’s 130), and in the USA it costs around 5 dollars (at least 350 rubles!). This is the result of a morning of underestimation. This is not at all a bad idea. It’s just that a sandwich can be sold in Russia for just a pittance, and in other countries for much less. Marvel at who has them at the pudding!
Visnovki
Serious economists no longer like to respond to the supply of how many dollars are costing us in the worst of times. The reason is to ask for exact numbers, if you want their molding to flow in even richly. Ale y unique food, in our opinion, is not correct.
The truth is really simple. For those who buy from long-term, smart minds, it is advisable to invest in the American dollar. The reason is that inflation in 2019 is inevitable, and the economy is finally recovering. Ideas about where you can exchange rubles from those who have a bit of a stink. As a result, it is too early to blame all the stench on the foreign exchange market. It seems that the government cannot come up with options for how private institutions and individuals can waste them at a cost.
What will happen to the exchange rate of the Russian ruble after the beginning of the Ministry of Finance's intervention?
Since the 7th, the Ministry of Finance of Russia, with the assistance of the Central Bank, is now purchasing currency on the Moscow Exchange. With the help of the fierce CPU, they plan to increase foreign currency by 113 billion rubles (1.9 billion dollars). As a result, the ruble has fallen in value to the dollar, experts say.
It is predicted that in the current oil and gas revenues of the federal budget by 113 billion rubles (maybe 1.9 billion dollars) will be exceeded as planned, according to the Ministry of Finance published on Friday. The ministry can buy foreign currency with this sum.
Thus, from February 7 to February 6, the Central Bank will now buy 6.3 billion rubles (105 million dollars) for the Ministry of Finance.
On the 25th of today, the Ministry of Finance informed that since the beginning of the year, the department has been carrying out operations involving the sale and purchase of currencies that are dependent on naphtha prices. Currency purchased on the market is close to Russian reserves.
Thanks to the new policy, the ruble has become cheaper
On Friday afternoon on the Moscow Exchange, the dollar was trading at 59.5 rubles. Economists predict that as a result of the intervention, the dollar exchange rate will increase to approximately 62-63 rubles.
These experts are afraid that this policy could limit the floating of the ruble. In a statement to Alfa Bank that this year has come to an end, the bank’s chief economist, Natalia Orlova, says that “every day, the concept of exchange rate targeting is being turned around again.”
“Russian government is losing the appreciation of the ruble exchange rate at the cost of reducing trust to a policy of free navigation,” writes Orlov.
According to her idea, this will lead to the fact that the population and business can again begin to transfer money to foreign currency, and also increase inflationary pressure. For the current CPU policy, according to Orlova, it is necessary to become a rizik.
Inflation at the end of 2016 dropped to a record 5.4%. Meta CPU at the end of 2017 – 4%. Russian officials have repeatedly stated that low inflation is necessary to accelerate the growth of Russian GDP and change the structure of the economy. Indeed, President Volodymyr Putin is right when he talks about lowering inflation as one of the major economic successes of the past.
Other economies respect that the Ministry of Finance's new policy does not pose a threat to rising prices, as the amount of foreign currency purchases is small. However, the risks are moving due to the increase in naphtha prices and the increase in purchasing obligations. In addition, purchases by the Ministry of Finance will have an accumulative effect and will gradually flow more and more into the market, says Oleksiy Dev’yatov, head economist at Uralsib Bank.
The Russian service of the BBC tried to figure out what the legacy of the new mechanism would be.
What is the proper mechanism for purchasing currency?
The Ministry of Finance carries out transactions with foreign currency in relation to naphtha prices. Since prices for Russian Urals naphtha will be as high as 40 dollars per barrel, then the department will use additional budget revenues to buy currency, and then transfer it to the Reserve Fund and the National Welfare Fund.
If prices for naphtha will be as low as 40 dollars, then the Ministry of Finance, for example, will sell the currency.
According to the Ministry of Finance, the average price for Ural was 53.16 dollars per barrel.
At the beginning of each month, the Ministry of Finance will announce how much the Central Bank will purchase currencies for the coming month and how many will be purchased today.
The policy of the Ministry of Finance also reminds us of the excessive policy of the Central Bank of Russia. Before the leaves fell in 2014, the Central Bank bought and sold foreign currency on the market depending on the ruble exchange rate. Then we became convinced of this policy, which led to the devaluation of the ruble in 2014-2015.
The bank "Renaissance Capital" respects that the decision is rational. Economists to the bank Oleg Kuzmin and Charles Robertson write in their recent analysis of the decision of the Ministry of Finance that in this way the economy can reduce the backlog of the economy from naphtha prices and increase the stability of the budget.
What will happen to Karbovanets?
It is important for economists to appreciate that the exchange rate of the ruble as a result of the Ministry of Finance’s intervention will decrease by approximately 4-5% to the dollar. If one dollar costs about 59.5 rubles, then the cost is approximately 62-66 rubles, experts said.
Devyatov from Uralsib explains that the number of purchases made by the Ministry of Finance is not so great in a market with equal turnover, so the effect will initially be small. However, the cumulative effect of the intervention, in my opinion, will soon appear on the ruble exchange rate. The dollar exchange rate will increase to approximately 62 rubles.
As naphtha prices increase, the Ministry of Finance will increase purchase obligations, explains Dev’yatov. In this case, the influx of operations of the Ministry of Finance will have a much stronger impact on the ruble exchange rate.
Orlova also writes that the Ministry of Finance’s interventions are not large enough to push the dollar exchange rate to 65-70 rubles. According to these estimates, through interventions, the ruble may weaken by about 5 rubles, or up to 64-65 rubles.
Renaissance Capital believes that as a result of the intervention of the Ministry of Finance, the ruble will weaken by approximately 3-4% to the lowest level. However, let the bank know that everything is subject to future purchase obligations. According to bank analysts, the purchase of foreign currency by 5 billion dollars pushes the average exchange rate of the dollar to the ruble per river by 1 ruble.
If naphtha prices in the average price are 50-55 dollars per barrel, then the dollar exchange rate will become 64-66 rubles, predicts Renaissance Capital.
The chief economist of the BCS, Volodymyr Tikhomirov, appreciates that the Ministry of Finance’s purchases in the middle and long term will not in general affect the ruble. Everything, as before, depends on naphtha prices, geopolitics and investor attitudes to Russia. It is clear that in the middle of 2017 the dollar will be worth 59.7 rubles. According to the expert, joining the course can result in an increased number of purchases.
A lot of Russian officials and politicians have been repeatedly blamed for the weakening of the ruble. Bloomberg reported this week that Russian officials are afraid of further depreciation of the Russian currency. The agency admits that this is one of the reasons why Russian President Volodymyr Putin may take a break and not discuss food restrictions and the easing of sanctions from the administration of US President Donald Trump.
How can we check the growth of inflation and CPU rates?
The Central Bank decided on Friday not to change the key rate, which will now be 10%. According to the statement of the regulator, the strict penny-credit policy to reduce inflationary risks, including the connection with the beginning of the purchase of currency by the Ministry of Finance, has been eliminated.
Economies are highly concerned that there will not be a sharp increase in inflation through the decision of the Ministry of Finance.
“All importers have long ago vowed to maintain the high ruble exchange rate as long as there was devaluation,” explains Dev’yatov. In my words, imports, when the price of goods increases, is at the rate of 70-75 rubles per dollar, which means that since the ruble is cheaper, imported goods do not have to pay more.
According to Renaissance Capital, through the Ministry of Finance, the Central Bank will be tempted to pursue a tight penny policy, as long as the risk of increased inflation moves forward. The bank understands that the Central Bank may lower the rate by 100-150 basis points, although previously they assumed that the rate reduction would be greater.
How will the role of the CPU and the policy of the regulator change?
“Renaissance Capital” respects that the Ministry of Finance’s decision will not appear in the policy of the Central Election Commission, which since 2014 has been engaged in inflation targeting and does not affect the ruble exchange rate.
Orlova from Alfa-Bank, however, is afraid that the floating exchange rate of the ruble will turn to the order of the day, although in the form of admission. In our opinion, the Russian authorities are trying to overcome the exorbitant depreciation of the ruble, and at the same time maintain confidence in the policy of free floating of the national currency.
“The Central Bank’s inflation target of 4% has not yet been achieved, but it is already being demonstrated that the rate of increase to a ruble exchange rate below 60 rubles/dollar has been achieved,” writes Orlov. In her opinion, the economy is already reacting to these advances in dolarization: the population and business may begin to pinch pennies from dollars.
Tikhomirov does not face such risks, in my opinion, the Ministry of Finance is trying to build up the reserves itself, and not waste money on Karbovanets. In this case, the expert clarifies that all food is less important in terms of purchases: if it grows, then the flow on Karbovanets will increase. In any case, the Ministry of Finance complicates the inflation targeting task for the CPU, the expert supports.
“It’s world practice to talk about those that have absolutely floating, absolutely free currency rates anywhere,” Dev’yatov respects.
How can we help the Ministry of Finance accumulate reserves?
According to the draft federal budget of Russia, the Reserve Fund will be drawn entirely from fate. The fund currently has over 973.5 billion rubles.
Tikhomirov believes that the Ministry of Finance will save additional income to replenish reserves. Devyatov is also good with him, but he clarifies that there is not enough stability to replenish the fund, and even naphtha prices may go down.
For the distribution of Alfa Bank, for naphtha prices of 55 dollars per barrel, the budget can additionally deduct 1.8 trillion rubles from this rock. Behind these words, the Ministry of Finance is trying to speed up the situation, since the presidential elections are still far away and naphtha prices are high.
Representatives of the Ministry of Finance have repeatedly stated that they do not plan to increase budget spending in the near future.
According to the forecasts of the Russian Ministry of Economy, the dollar will rise to seventy rubles. So, the residents of Russia will need to be able to cope with the overworld and work with less expenses.
Yak nafta infuses the dollar exchange rate
Such conditions are acceptable to the low price of naphtha. Due to lower prices for petroleum products, the dollar increases. At the end of 2017, there will be no shortage of displays. Such pessimistic forecasts were given by the Ministry of Economic Development.
There are also favorable options that experience a slight stabilization of the penny token exchange rate as the price of naphtha rises to sixty dollars. According to the statements of officials, it is too early to deal with the issue of residual withdrawals, otherwise there is no need to be convinced by pessimistic forecasts.
If the recession is extended until 2018, there will be an increase in the dollar exchange rate. This can cause inflation. Starting with 2018, you will be able to earn a reduction in performance. According to the experts of the Ministry of Economy, in two thousand and seventeen years, the real incomes of Russian citizens are falling sharply, and sales of mass-produced goods will decline.
What will happen to the Reserve Fund in 2017
With the oil price reaching sixty dollars, there will be a renewal of investment activity, since during this hour the country has accumulated liquidity that requires serious investments. With continued changes in the value of black gold, capital investments will continue to decrease until 2018.
According to many analysts, naphtha is decreasing in Vartosta at a rapid pace, and the region’s budget will lie below these figures.
Through this, it will be necessary to generate a tax reduction scheme, otherwise the country will not be able to generate all the current income from its reserves. This was stated by the ministry. Such conclusions were drawn up after reviewing the documents provided by the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade. The reserve fund is refilled in a difficult situation. A huge hole is opening up, the reserves cannot be closed.
Just a few more little letters
According to current economists, there is now the beginning of a crisis. 2018 and 2017 will be at their peak. Too many people can no longer be tolerated. The situation cannot be changed either by the return of the Crimean land or by political actions.
Commercial production today is already beginning to decline. In the future, economic indicators will be worse, because through the increase in the value of foreign currency, Vietnamese producers cannot develop.
Igor Mikolaev stated that it is foolish to think that in the face of the recession that has been happening, not to lose a trace. In order for the country to get out of this chaos, it is necessary to impose anti-Russian sanctions and undertake necessary reforms.
Once structural economic reforms are implemented, it will be difficult to achieve their effect. If there are sanctions, there is no way to cope with them, but developments will no longer be possible.
Until then, the Minister of Finance Oleksiy Kudrin expressed respect for those that Russia will soon find itself in a difficult situation. Vin is right. Also, in my opinion, the recession was caused by an investment famine. It is not clear to me what kind of steps this drive will take.
It is unlikely that individuals in the private sector will begin to invest their money.
Also, it is not appropriate for an expert to be the one who wants to overthrow the Russian giants from the fact that the situation is extremely time-sensitive and soon everything will return to normal. People just have to endure it for now, otherwise, if they don’t get better at it over time, they might get sick.
The dollar and the ruble are an accessible and accurate indicator that indicates what level of life will be in Russia in the near future. Therefore, our country must follow him with the remaining unstable fates.
What will happen next in the dollar - forecasts for 2018
Until the end of fate, people traditionally have a growing interest in the latest forecasts of experts, stopping financial fraud. Let the latest news not spoil those who will have to exchange rubles for dollars with their optimism, and other Russian analysts don’t predict anything bad. Moreover, your thoughts about the situation for 2018. There have already been a lot of domestic and foreign fakes identified.
The dollar exchange rate according to forecasts for 2018 will become 62-67 rubles. for the dollar, although for the long term the population will need to prepare for the fact that the foreign currency will actively change its value, and most likely in the future. For example, a number of experts, including accountants of the reputable bank Morgan and Stanley, believe that this is a very possible scenario if Russia pays 85 rubles per dollar.
However, the forecast of most analysts indicates that the ruble will not fall into a break and fall, as it will soon be “not even possible” for all the “trees” to turn around at 62-67 rubles. for "American". Still, the new news does not provide any basis for making a more optimistic or negative forecast.
However, after the presidential elections in the United States, the situation practically did not change, although the price of the positive news increased significantly. Moreover, for some unknown reason, Russia’s radio, even Trump, clearly said: “And I’ll tell you, Volodya, you don’t need to!” — this was the story of the Russian aviation — the idea of the rich fakhivites that the presidents of the Russian Federation and the United States would soon create a great scandal and a special warden. This is the reaction of Ukrainian President Poroshenko, immediately after the elections, while Russia was satisfied with the results, Petro Oleksiyovich said that he was checking with President Trump for the supply of lethal weapons to his borders.
What will happen to the dollar in 2018, experts think
The idea was voiced to a number of experts, the order, their main idea was that 2018. will be the fate of stabilization, except for possible short-term recessions/rises of the ruble, which is the current level of the ruble, which has been in place since the summer of 2016.
Why is the situation not better? - The story is here on the surface:
1. The main Russian budget-saving commodity - naphtha, pleased in the middle of the year with significant price increases, but in the other half of the autumn it “got up” on the level, which may indicate that the Russian Federation can no longer “push up its pants”. More than one analyst has stated that budget development in Russia is possible for oil prices of less than $55 per barrel, which is far away;
2. Sanctions will continue to tie up the country’s economy. The lack of investment is noticeable to everyone and allows for the development of the main pillar of the Russian economy - oil and gas production;
3. The balance of payments is the only thing that inspires optimism. Due to the collapse of pennies from the Russian Federation and the Russian Federation, Chinese companies, banks practically do not recognize the currency shortage. It is important that the situation is gradually improving, and the number of people that are moving is gradually growing. Some experts have come to the conclusion that the current balance of payments will reduce the negative impact in other important areas. Alas, it’s a pity, it’s not very convincing.
From all that has been said, it is clear that Russia and its economy, regardless of all import substitution, relied on the hope that they could not resist instability. At the same time, there are no reasons for the situation to deteriorate, so completely, with a creak, but still the real sector of the economy adapts to realities. Therefore, the dollar exchange rate in Russia in 2018 is changing at the same positions as today with short-term exchanges on all sides. This is indicated by the forecast of most economic experts, and their idea is supported by foreigners.
What will happen to the dollar in the near future 2018 latest news for today
The most important news that can change the situation with the exchange rate, the ruble-dollar will be immediately after the new saints. Therefore, the EU is subject to the greatest share of sanctions. As they say, there is one new thing, not confirmed by anything, it will raise the wood quality by 10-25% and allow you to break through the psychological level 60 rubles. per dollar This is the idea of a great number of experts.
Russia can also realize that oil prices would like to rise for a short time to 50 dollars per barrel, which will help you understand that not everything is so bad. However, there are optimistic scenarios in which all dollars will be lost in the near future in the designated corridor, or sooner or later the ruble will soon become valuable.
What will the dollar exchange rate be like in the fall?
Experts indicate that if the sanctions are not applied, then there will be a severe speculative collapse in the market, as the volatility (activity) of the market falls. Therefore, a group of many penny speculators can make the masses boast.
The grass has all the activity in the spring, so if the ruble were not there, it would again be closer to the current exchange rate (62-67). Also, spring will end again this spring, after which the EU will again impose a significant share of sanctions. Therefore, any kind of turnaround is possible.
The price of the ruble-dollar pair in the spring may depend on the results of elections in the lower key countries of Europe. And yet the most realistic forecast is until the end of 2018. The dollar-ruble will not exceed 67, so the situation with the exchange rate will not change at all.
What will happen to the dollar at the end of 2018
If any forecast for the river does not guarantee any accuracy, but if a number of experts come up with the idea that the world will lose everything without any special changes, then Russia’s dollar will not be affected by above-world activity, then the Central Bank may mother of yogo from great surprises. As a result of this, most economists will say that the upcoming New River will contribute to the dollar at lower levels.
